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Re: Fortnightly update on ENSO from the Australian BOM.

"Dawlish" <pjg…> wrote in message…

"Moderate to strong La Ni a event in Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 27 October | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The La Ni a in the Pacific remains a moderate to strong event. Long-
range models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that this La Ni a will
persist into at least early 2011. "

So why, when global SSTs have been falling for 10 months, in a time
when there is a "perfect storm" of other negative forcings, haven’t we
seen a corresponding significant fall in global temperatures?

I’ve been waiting for another La Nina event during this extended solar
minimum (2007-8 was the last at the very start of the minimum), so I
can judge the likelihood of solar forcings being presently greater
than anthropogenic forcings. I’ll judge fully next Autumn when ENSO
will most likely shift phase again, but so far, all the evidence is
that these two major forcings (there are more, of course) have been
superceded by an even stronger positive forcing so far. The only
credible positive forcing is warming by CO2.

The other credible positive forcing consists of SOLAR DRIVEN global cloud
cover variations.

Warmest Regards


"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"…

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell

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