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Archive for March, 2012

Re: FS: Safety In The Market Smarter Starter Pack & No 1 Trading Plan

I have found the SITM Smarter Starter Pack (ABC Trading) to be
profitable trading SPI futures and would not label their system a scam.
I did however find it a lot of work which is why many people give up and
label it as a scam.

It took me just over a year to get through the material thoroughly, hand
draw the charts and back test the signals (i manually tested it from
1983). It could be done faster but during that year i was working full
time, renovating a house and do job related study. So for people who
have a bit more time on their hands they could get it done faster.  

I have used the ideas in the Starter Pack and Number One trading Plan to
put my own trading plan toegether that returns on average about 70% p.a.
(back tested over the last 18 years of CBA and traded for the last year
profitably). Based on 30K CFD account and taking 50K positions at a
time)

Overall it has worked for me. If you purchase the course get the
software too (it is supposed to back test SITM ABC signals). I’d be
happy to pay $3,000 for the 2 courses and get them to throw in the
software as well.


luke447

.
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"Saving" The Planet Is Too Expensive Says NSW

October 27 2010

NSW says it can only afford a little of the green power it claims will
 "save" the world from destruction:

NEW South Wales is slashing the gross feed-in tariff for its solar bonus
scheme because it is costing too much.

Premier Kristina Keneally today announced the government will cut the tariff
from 60c to 20c per kilowatt hour, and introduce a total capacity cap of 300
megawatts.

Ms Keneally says the sharp takeup of the scheme, and the fact that solar
panels had halved in price since it was introduced 2009, means the
government has to act to slow down demand..

"The changes we introduce today strike a better balance between keeping down
electricity cost for consumers, while still supporting renewable energy
generation," Ms Keneally said.

Beautiful.

The closer we get to those renewable energy targets, the more politicians
flinch from the pain.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/nsw-to-slash-costly-sol…

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-great…

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell

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Canada's growing polar bear population 'becoming a problem,' locals say

http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-news-in-orlando…

Canada’s growing polar bear population ‘becoming a problem,’ locals
say
January 8th, 2010 9:29 pm ET.
On-the-ground reports show growth in polar bear numbers across much of
Canada’s Nunavut territory.
Photo: kewlwallpapers.com
 Polar bears, the lumbering carnivores of the arctic, continue to be
the poster bear er, child for global warmers everywhere who are
convinced the baby seal munchers are being driven to extinction by
man s irresponsible release of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Next to whales, the cuddly fur balls enjoy a special place on the
Animals to Love list. Grown-ups adore them (provided it s from a
safe distance), and grade-school kids who can t find Greenland or
Manitoba on a map raid their penny jars to save them.

But are the denizens of the deep north facing extinction?  Are they in
desperate need of saving? It depends on who you ask.

According to the Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), the polar bear
population is on shaky ground actually, ice because of warmer
temperatures and shrinking ice floe in the Arctic triggered by the
favorite bad-guy of the green movement anthropogenic (human-caused)
global warming.

In a news release issued after its conference last July, the PBSG
concluded that only one of 19 total polar bear subpopulations is
currently increasing, three are stable and eight are declining. Data
was insufficient to determine numbers for the remaining seven
subpopulations. The group estimated that the total number of polar
bears is somewhere between 20,000 and 25,000. (Estimates of the
population during the 1950s and 1960s, before harvest quotas were
enacted, range from 5,000 to 10,000.)

However, the PBSG quickly acknowledged that the mixed quality of
information on the different subpopulations means there is much room
for error in establishing the numbers, and the potential for error,
given the ongoing and projected changes in habitats and other
potential stresses, is cause for concern.

Despite those problems, the PBSG said it is optimistic that humans
can mitigate the effects of global warming and other threats to the
polar bears.

Not so fast. According to a U.S. Senate and Public Works Committee
report, the alarm about the future of polar bear decline is based on
speculative computer model predictions many decades in the future.
Those predictions are being challenged by scientists and forecasting
experts, said the report.

Those challenges, supported by facts on the ground, including
observations from Inuit hunters in the region, haven t stopped climate
fear-mongers at the U.S. Geological Survey from proclaiming that
future sea ice conditions will result in the loss of approximately
two-thirds of the world s current polar bear population by the mid
21st century.

Such sky-is-falling rhetoric brings smiles to the Inuit population of
Canada s Nunavut Territory. They, too, know how to count, and they
claim the bear population is stable or on the rise in their own
backyard. Polar bears may be on the decline in some areas, but during
their frequent visits to Inuit towns and outposts they rarely decline
an easy meal from the local dump or a poorly secured garbage can.

Harry Flaherty, chair of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board in the
capital of Iqaluit, says the polar bear population in the region,
along the Davis Strait, has doubled during the past 10 years. He
questions the official figures, which are based to a large extent on
helicopter surveys.

Scientists do a quick study one to two weeks in a helicopter, and
don t see all the polar bears. We re getting totally different stories
[about the bear numbers] on a daily basis from hunters and harvesters
on the ground, he says.

Dr. Mitchell Taylor, a biologist who has been researching polar bear
populations in Canada s Nunavut Territory for 35 years, seems to
agree. The study estimates from the Iqaluit area agree with those of
local hunters, although the accuracy of the counts is doubtful in some
areas, he says.

Gabriel Nirlungayuk, director of wildlife for Nunavut Tuungavik Inc.,
is another doubter who questions the accuracy of helicopter surveys.
Helicopters have many limitations, including fuel capacity. They
can t go far out into the open water, he says. But hunters
crisscrossing the area by dog team, snowmobile or boat are seeing
polar bears where scientists and helicopters are not traveling.

Forty years ago, old-timers living in the area around Hudson Bay were
lucky to see a polar bear, Nirlungayuk says. Now there are bears
living as far south as James Bay.

The growing population has become a real problem, especially over
the last 10 years, he says. During the summer and fall, families
enjoying outdoor activities must be on the look-out for bears. Many
locals invite along other hunters for protection.

Last year, in Pelly Bay, all the bears that were captured were caught
in town, Nirlungayuk says. You now have polar bears coming into
towns, getting into cabins, breaking property and just creating havoc
for people up here, he says.

In the Western Hudson Bay area, where harvest quotas were reduced by
80 percent four years ago, communities are complaining about the
number of polar bears. Now people can look out the window and see as
many as 20 polar bears at the ice-flow edge, Flaherty says.

During a public hearing last September focusing on the polar bear
population in the Baffin Bay region, hunters reported more sightings
of females with three cubs. The normal litter is one or two. Flaherty,
himself a serious hunter, says the abundant food supply primarily
baby ring seals in the area is responsible for the bigger litters.

The on-the-ground reports, if accurate, seem to contradict the
official story of the beleaguered polar bear. According to the
standard theory, warmer temperatures (caused by human CO2 emissions)
are shrinking the ice floe, the polar bear s main hunting ground,
forcing populations to compete for a diminishing food supply. Warmer
temperatures also are to blame for the loss of thicker multi-year
ice.

Flaherty and many others disagree with the official story. We are
aware there are changes in the weather, but it is not affecting the
daily life of the animals, he says. Polar bears hunt in the floe-
edge areas, on newly formed ice, and in the fiords in search of baby
seals. They don t hunt in the glaciers [areas of multi-year ice].

We re not seeing negative effects on the polar bear population from
so-called climate change and receding ice, he says. He is convinced
that some scientists are deliberately using the polar bear issue to
scare people about global warming, a view widely shared by many
Nunavut locals.

It has warmed in the region and, as Taylor confirms, the summer sea-
ice boundary has been slowly contracting for the last 30 years and
experienced a big decline in 2007 an event that was widely reported
as evidence of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming.

However, the shrinking sea ice does not affect polar bear numbers
uniformly, he emphasizes. Even in adjacent sub-populations, the
impact may vary, he says. Every population is ecologically
different. Some populations may actually benefit from less sea ice.

Taylor downplays the theory that CO2 is the culprit responsible for
warmer Arctic temperatures. Other factors, including wind-driven ice
movement, shifting ocean currents, reduced albedo effect (less snow-
cover resulting in less heat reflection) and increased water vapor
(the major greenhouse gas) from a growing expanse of ice-free water,
leading to warmer air temperatures, may be influencing the local
climate, he says.

Arctic warming is real, but just because it s warmer doesn t mean
it s caused by carbon dioxide. I don t think CO2 is the main factor
causing it.

He notes that the current model forecasts, which show elevated CO2
levels triggering global temperature increases, don t agree with the
contemporary temperature record. When predictions don t match the
observations, scientists should say there is something wrong here.

The IPCC models, he claims, are multiplying the effect of CO2 to
obtain the temperature increases they predict, a criticism shared by
others in the scientific community who have openly accused modelers of
data manipulation.

The idea that these models can make predictions 50 to 100 years into
the future seems, frankly, absurd to me.

Both Nirlungayuk and Flaherty ridicule media claims that the polar
bear is threatened or on the verge of extinction.

Polar bears are very intelligent . . . they have adapted through many
climate changes for thousands of years. They are not going to wait
around for the ice to freeze to start hunting. They live on more than
just seals, says Nirlungayuk.

Adds Flaherty: At the end of the day, the King of the North will
always be here. When we hear that polar bears are headed towards
extinction, we just kind of smile at ourselves.

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Re: Fortnightly update on ENSO from the Australian BOM.

"Dawlish" <pjg…@hotmail.com> wrote in message

news:379aad3d-8dd3-4ff5-9cda-ec36ab547c88@u17g2000yqi.googlegroups.com…

"Moderate to strong La Ni a event in Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 27 October | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The La Ni a in the Pacific remains a moderate to strong event. Long-
range models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that this La Ni a will
persist into at least early 2011. "

So why, when global SSTs have been falling for 10 months, in a time
when there is a "perfect storm" of other negative forcings, haven’t we
seen a corresponding significant fall in global temperatures?

I’ve been waiting for another La Nina event during this extended solar
minimum (2007-8 was the last at the very start of the minimum), so I
can judge the likelihood of solar forcings being presently greater
than anthropogenic forcings. I’ll judge fully next Autumn when ENSO
will most likely shift phase again, but so far, all the evidence is
that these two major forcings (there are more, of course) have been
superceded by an even stronger positive forcing so far. The only
credible positive forcing is warming by CO2.
======================================

WRONG!
The other credible positive forcing consists of SOLAR DRIVEN global cloud
cover variations.

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-great…

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell

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Why Are Republicans Climate Skeptics?

Maybe that’s because the Republicans come from more rural states that haven’t
had any warming, man-made or otherwise.

The rural data set shows no warming since 1890!

27 Oct 2010

The New York Times marvels editorially that none of the Republicans running
for the Senate accept the "scientific consensus that humans are largely
responsible for global warming."

Maybe that’s because the Republicans come from more rural states that haven’t
had any warming – man-made or otherwise.

My colleague Ed Long, formerly a NASA physicist, has found a severe problem
with the "official" US temperature records from the Goddard Space Institute
and the National Data Collection Center.

Both data sets deal with the inevitable gaps in station-by-station data by
averaging the gap station with another nearby station. Supposedly, this
works because "stations in the same latitude bands tend to share a more
similar climate."

Too often, however, this has led to averaging rural and urban temperatures
together. Inevitably, that means the blended temperatures will be higher.

Due to the Urban Heat Island effect, a big city can raise its own
temperatures by 5 C. Even a small city can be 2 C warmer than the
surrounding countryside. The rural population of America has stayed roughly
the same since 1950, but the urban population doubled from 1950-1960 – and
has continued to grow twice as fast.

Long says GISS "adjustments" over ten years have progressively lowered
temperatures for far-back data and raised the temperatures in the recent
past.

This "adjustment" increased a 0.35 C per century uptrend in 2000 to 0.44 C
per century in 2009 – a 26 percent increase.

NCDC, meanwhile, has shifted the "official" rate of temperature change for
1940-2007 from 0.1 C per century in the raw data to an "adjusted" 0.6 C per
century – a 600 percent "adjustment."

To assess the real size and meaning of the rural-urban divergence, Long
selected one rural station and one urban station per state; the rural and
urban station trends were then averaged separately.  The results are
startling.

The rural data set shows no warming since 1890!

The temperatures have trended up and down, but there’s no overall increase.

The urban stations show a strong warming, especially after 1965. Are these
two "skeleton sets" of raw data more representative of reality than the
urban-polluted "adjusted" data sets in the official records?  Long says
 "Yes"

* The raw data is that measured at the time, so, simply stated, those were
the temperatures.

* The two sets had strikingly similar variations, with the rural set having
more variability. The cities were warmer, but less susceptible to short-term
changes in air temperatures due to their retained heat.

* The medium-term trends are similar up to about 1965, but the cities warmed
much faster after that year. That’s probably not global warming, but rather
the in-filling of the cities: higher populations, more and taller office
buildings, more streets and parking lots, more lost trees.  The airports
have poured more concrete, and become "development hot spots."

Both data sets show that public opinion has been heavily impacted by the
continuing 30-year phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Temperatures rose strongly 1915-1940 during a Pacific warming, but World War
II was scarier than any theory about man-made warming.

When the PDO trended downward from 1940-1975, newsmagazines and "experts"
predicted a new Ice Age.

When the temperatures and the Pacific rose strongly again from 1976-98, the
man-made warming scare was born and flourished.

Now that earth has failed to warm for a decade, public fear of global
warming has waned dramatically.

We have clearly been polluting the official temperature record with Urban
Heat.

Have none of the global warming scientists, cap and trade millionaires, and
media folks noticed?

Or have the billions and billions of dollars spent to "save the world from
pending disaster" clouded their vision?

Source:

Edward R. Long, "Contiguous US Temperature Trends Using NCDC Raw And
Adjusted Data for One-Per-State Rural and Urban Station Sets. SPPI, February
25, 2010

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/temperature_trends.html?I…

DENNIS T. AVERY, a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC,
is an environmental economist.  He was formerly a senior analyst for the
Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable
Global Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years.

http://newsbyus.com/index.php/article/3321

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-great…

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell

posted by admin in Uncategorized and have Comments (19)

Re: Drought Will Be The Norm Without Emissions Reductions

"Harry Hope" <riv…@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message

news:f9mic6dhsiimvda0ab3eoft2kurn656skc@4ax.com…

> http://www.care2.com/causes/global-warming/blog/drought-will-be-the-n…
> Drought Will Be The Norm Without Emissions Reductions
> Climate change will likely cause warming temperatures that lead to
> widespread drought around the world in the next 30 years, according to
> a National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) study.

> Most of the western two-thirds of the U.S. will be much drier by the
> 2030s.

> Most of the Western Hemisphere, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia will be
> at risk of extreme drought this century.

Oh really?
Rainfall trend in Australia is UP!

Australia Has Wettest September On Record

So much for carbon crackpot lies about less Australian rainfall.

The previous record was 41mm in 1906, and the long-term September average is
17mm.

Also, 2010 is on track to be the sixth wettest year on record.

October 2 2010

Australia has had its wettest September in history, smashing a century-old
record with almost three times the long-term average rainfall for the month,
latest statistics show.

The September rain results are part of the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest
Special Climate Statement, released yesterday.

Blair Trewin, the bureau’s senior climatologist, said the influence of the
2010 La Nina event was creating almost perfect conditions across Australia,
but the rain-friendly climate was likely to break down by the end of the
year.

Overall September’s average rainfall was 49 millimetres across the country,
the heaviest rains falling in northern and central Australia.

The previous record was 41mm in 1906, and the long-term September average is
17mm.

”September is normally averaged the driest month over Australia during the
year,” Dr Trewin said. This year is on track to be the sixth wettest year
on record.

In NSW, September rains were significantly above the average for the state
at 50mm, while over the year NSW rainfall is 21 per cent above the long-term
average.

Dr Trewin said much of the state’s rain had been experienced in the
north-west, which suffered floods in January. The east coast and Sydney is
at or just below average levels for the year.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/september-the-wettest-on-re…

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-great…

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell

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