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Archive for August, 2011

Re: Early warning: POSSIBLE U.S. ECONOMIC COLLAPSE Just LIKE MR KANGA PREDICTED as WELL …where poor Australia will be standing as a Motherless Child

On Jul 1, 12:36 pm, "Benway (original non-Zionist)"
<captai…@mailpuppy.com> wrote:

*> *http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/arbitraryvote063009.html

*
Sir,

Thank you for that update on a situation well foreseen by most aware
True Australian Gentlemen, …and with Australia indeed  in the grip
of ONE IN A THOUSAND YEARS DIVINE DRUDGING DROUGHT, it certainly did
not need on top of it being dragged along, like the retarded child IT
IS,  all the way to Hades !

HADES ! That ‘s where it’s heading as a result of its COLLECTIVE
CRIMES …

YEP ! No winter rain by Order !

Sir Jean-Paul Turcaud
Australia Mining Pioneer …

.
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The Suspicious "Science" Behind Man-Made Global Warming

James Anderson

Jun 30 2009

QUOTE: if you’re looking for scientifically rigorous experiments linking CO2
to increased temperatures, I have bad news for you: It doesn’t exist.

Supporters may be more concerned with politics than facts.

Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, had an op-ed in Monday’s
New York Times in which he called anyone who’s skeptical of man-made global
warming a "traitor to the Earth."

Now, I don’t have a PhD in Economics (although I do have one in another
field), nor do I have a Nobel Prize, but that accusation seems a bit over
the top. Perhaps it’s just another example of the growing societal acrimony
frequently discussed on Minyanville.

I’d like to take a look at the evidence for global warming resulting from
increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere: The argument is that more infrared
radiation released by the Earth is captured given the higher concentration
of CO2 in the air, thereby warming the planet.

However, if you’re looking for scientifically rigorous experiments linking
CO2  to increased temperatures, I have bad news for you: It doesn’t exist.

What we have are computer models showing that increased CO2 levels will lead
to catastrophic increases in global temperatures; an increase of as little
as 10 degrees Fahrenheit will cause a lot of ice will melt, the sea level to
rise, and Newfoundland to resemble Bermuda.

But that’s the model talking.

Can any model accurately capture the complexities of the Earth’s atmosphere?

There are certainly many sophisticated ones out there. Happily, most of them
use actual physical experiments to verify their underlying assumptions.
However, until the "Flux Capacitor" from Back to the Future gets built, any
climate model will need decades to verify its assumptions using real data.

Climate simply refers to one day of weather after another.

Global-warming true believers, let me ask you the following question: Do you
view weather forecast projections for 2 weeks from today with the same
certainty that you do a computer model that purports to predict the weather
100 years from now? If not, why not? After all, they’re both based on
computer models.

If your neighbor told you he were getting a tent for his daughter’s wedding
reception 2 weeks from now, and you told him not to bother, because a
computer model predicted sunny weather, do you think he’d take you
seriously?

The key to good science — not good politics — is understanding the
scientific method. Richard Feynmann, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, put
it this way: "It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is; it doesn’t
matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong."

Since we can’t look 50 years into the future, let’s go back and look at the
actual climate forecasts from 6 to 7 years ago, and compare the global
temperature forecasts to the actual observed temperatures.

Here’s some science that no one with a vested political or financial
interest in climate change would want you to know: The warmest year since
1934 was 1998, at the height of the strongest El Nino on record.

The gold standard for CO2 measurement is taken at Mauna Loa Observatory in
Hawaii. In 1998, the observatory recorded 366 parts per million (ppm) of CO2
in the atmosphere; it steadily rose to 386 ppm in 2008. In the meantime, the
earth has cooled.

If we go back to climate models from, say, 2002, what did they predict
during the past 7 years as CO2 was steadily rising?

As you can see, the IPCC models — the ones blessed by the UN — predicted
that global temperatures would be steadily warming, but instead they’ve been
cooling. Let’s recall what Feynmann said: If the data don’t agree with the
theory, the theory’s wrong — regardless of a widespread public desire to
blame Exxon (XOM), or Chevron (CVX), or Hummers (GM) for global warming.

The observed temperature data don’t match what the model predicts. In
physics (my field), we’d look at both the experiment and the data to see
whether there was something wrong with the experiment’s design, or whether
the data were right and the theory wrong. Either way, we’d step back and
reevaluate everything.

What we certainly wouldn’t do is cram 300 pages of amendments through
Congress at 3:00 a.m. and force a vote the next day.

To quote Professor Krugman’s article:

"Sometimes even the most authoritative analyses get things wrong. And if
dissenting opinion makers and politicians based their dissent on hard work
and hard thinking — if they had carefully studied the issue, consulted with
experts and concluded that the overwhelming scientific consensus was
misguided — they could at least claim to be acting responsibly."

"Authoritative analyses" a phrase that sums up the problem better than I
ever could have. Not scientific analyses, not peer-reviewed, not unbiased —  
but authoritative. Sounds kind of like Iran, North Korea, or Al Gore to me.

"If they had carefully studied the issue, consulted with experts, and
concluded that the overwhelming scientific consensus was misguided — they
could at least claim to be acting responsibly," Krugman says. I don’t even
have to be snide about this quote.

CBSnews.com had an article this past weekend about an EPA scientist who
wrote a 98-page report warning against making hasty "decisions based on a
scientific hypothesis that does not appear to explain most of the available
data." The report was quashed by an EPA official who wrote in an email to a
staff researcher on March 17: "The administrator and the administration has
decided to move forward … and your comments do not help the legal or
policy case for this decision."

To give you another example, the first woman to receive a PhD in meteorology
was Joanne Simpson. Last year, she wrote a telling article, in which she
said: "Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receive any
funding, I can speak quite frankly," suggesting that she may have felt
obliged to keep quiet on those of her views that were at odd with her
funders’.

I’m not surprised that Professor Krugman has never heard of any of the
highly qualified researchers who are skeptical of man-made global warming,
because they’re typically either quashed, ignored by the mainstream media,
or threatened by the ruin of their professional careers.

Dr Simpson’s first line is classic.

"There are way too many myths out there about global warming that never get
fact-checked. Krugman thinks that Arctic ice is decreasing at terrifying
rates. And yet, ice coverage through June is just about average for the past
8 years. Also, the average Arctic temperature is holding near 32� F, the
latest date in the year it’s been that cold in 50 years of record keeping.
That’s terrifying?"

Back in March, 2007, Al Gore told Congress that "the science is settled."
Don’t do any more research, don’t question my judgment, "The science is
settled." The person who probably heard that first was Galileo Galilei: "The
science is settled. The Sun revolves around the Earth, not vice versa.
You’re hereby sentenced to house arrest until you recant your heretical
views." Poor Galileo, the man Albert Einstein called "the father of modern
science," spent the rest of his life under house arrest.

There’s no doubt the science isn’t settled. The data’s not fitting the
model. With the Earth cooling, what was the real reason for cramming the Cap
& Tax Bill (its actual name) through the House? Hopefully, some "cooler"
heads will start looking at both sides of the story, and will come up with
an energy bill that doesn’t include caps on CO2  – which, it’s beginning to
seem, may have nothing to do with global warming.

Traitors, betraying the planet?

Paul, let me give you a little advice.

You got Cap & Tax through the House. It’s summer — chill. Lighten up a bit
and check out icecap.us.

You might discover that there are some quality traitors at work out there.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/xom-CVX-gm-Global-CLIMATE-warming…

Warmest Regards

Bonzo

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I've Changed My Mind About Global Warming!

1 Apr 2009

The CATO ad is what got me thinking.

Maybe the real reason I didn’t sign is because I knew that I might be wrong
on global warming.

And if I was wrong, that meant I wasn’t right. If I wasn’t right, then I
could be wrong-about a lot of things.

Luckily Gavin Schmidt and I are both based in Manhattan, so I was able to
meet him over beers to express my concern.

"Gav," I said, "Can I call you Gav?"

"No," he said.

"Gav, I’m beginning to have doubts. Maybe all those doomsday scenarios Jim
posits are real." ‘Jim’ being James Hansen, Scientist, of course.

"Might be," he agreed.

"And if they’re real, then that is bad news"

"The worst," he said.

"What strikes me most is your, and Jim’s, sincerity. Your models aren’t
making skillful predictions, yet you still believe in them. That kind of
unshakable faith impresses me."

He nodded. "We are firm in our convictions."

"And I’m not," I admitted. "At least, not anymore. My doubts about the
coming catastrophe are crumbling in the face of such strong belief by so
many."

My emotions were getting the best of me.

Gav reached out his hand, tenderly, and placed it over mine. "It’s OK," he
said.

"The constant skepticism and critical thinking I’ve been indulging in are
wearying." I took a sip of beer. "Truth is, I’m tired."

Gav’s face took on that serene look that fathers get when they see in the
distance their prodigal son walking through the field, finally coming home.

But as I gazed into my mug and began to realize, with horror, that even as
we sat-with me about to switch allegiances-that we were exacerbating global
warming.

"Bubbles!" I shouted, just as Gav was quaffing. "Carbon dioxide bubbles! In
the beer!"

Gav spit out his mouthful and lifted his glass and held it to the light.
Realization came to him. He put the beer down, hesitated, then stood up and
backed away from the bar.

I heard him whisper, "Not that. Anything but that."

I did a quick calculation: every pint added another
one-times-ten-to-the-minus-thirty-two-point-eight-degrees Centigrade to the
global average temperature. The logic was undeniable. To honestly embrace
climate activism meant that I had to give up beer.

"Gav.," I said.

He held up his hand.

He knew.

We stood silent for a moment.

He nodded and began to walk out.

As he was leaving, there was only one thing I could say. "Bartender. Another
Weihenstaphaner Korbinian Dunkel, please."

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=488

Warmest Regards

Bonzo

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Krugman Drags Out The "T" Word Again

29 Jun 2009

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman is calling for the heads of "deniers"
again.

In his "Betraying the Planet", he says that anybody who doesn’t agree with
his understanding on climate models should be labeled a traitor.

He made use of his common tropes: unforgivable, treasonous, betrayal, etc.

I wonder if knows the definitions of these strong words.

I think he does, but then it means that he has worked himself into an
irrational tizzy over the House vote.

Here’s my letter to their editor.

Naturally, I think there is low probability it will be published.

Dear Editor,

Your columnist Paul Krugman is rather excitable on the subject of global
warming. Treason? Denial? Unforgivable? Ill-considered, extreme words used
in haste. Mr. Krugman has failed to appreciate the limitations of
predictions and is unforgiving of those of us who do.

Mr. Krugman is correct to say that some climate models are predicting warmer
temperatures. Those same models have been so predicting for quite some time.
But they have been over-predicting, meaning that they have guessed the
temperatures would have been warmer than they have turned out to be. Climate
models have been poor in practice. They have done well in simulating, or
reproducing, past climates, but when checked against their actual (future)
predictions, they have been too hot.

It is rational, therefore, to believe that they will continue to
over-predict, until what is broken in the models is fixed. So to say that
the output of predictive models should be acted on without question or else
one is treasonous is not rational.

My expertise is in verification of forecasts (among other things, I serve on
the American Meteorological Society’s Probability and Statistics Committee).
When making a decision based on a forecast-whether to "cap and trade" or
regulate-one must take into account the skill of that forecast. More
skillful models should be trusted more than less skillful ones. So far,
climate models have not demonstrated consistent skill, thus we should be
cautious when acting on their predictions.

This in no way says that the models should be ignored and that no decisions
can be made safely based on their output. It does mean that there is room
for honest scientific disagreement. Shouting, in effect, that those who
disagree with Mr. Krugman’s views should be painted as traitors is just
plain silly.

William M. Briggs, PhD

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=727

Warmest Regards

Bonzo

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The Great Govt CO2 Power Grab

18 Apr 2009

The inevitable has happened.

The Obama government has declared CO2-a nutrient required by plants to live,
and a gas exhaled with your every breath-a pollutant. Let there be rejoicing
in the ranks of activists.

Now, when I say that what occurred was "inevitable" it means that there was
nothing anybody could have done to stop the government from doing what it
lusted to do.

No facts would have stopped them, no arguments, no evidence, no sober
quantifications of uncertainty. This was going to happen as soon as Obama
was elected.

Control is what was wanted and control is what was had.

The EPA, an agency of our ever-expanding government, has no direct electoral
oversight, by which I mean there is nothing you or I or any ordinary citizen
can do to influence any of its actions.

The president can influence it and occasionally rein in its excesses, as can
congress indirectly, but we folk are out of the loop.

I say this to make you feel a little better if you are upset at this,
unfortunately not unprecedented, move to add more governmental control of
our lives. There was nothing you could have done except possibly have voted
for McCain-and it’s not clear that that would have helped either.

So this EPA ruling was as natural an occurrence as CO2 being released in the
breath of spotted owls in old growth forests.

Again, this was going to happen, it was unstoppable.

But, just for the fun of it, I will tell you why it was the wrong thing to
do.

Those That Care created this ruling because they are concerned that
human-caused changes in climate will be deleterious. There are two
components to this belief.

The first is that humans influence the climate. I have said many times that
this is trivially true. It is only a question of how much we do so.

So how much of the change in climate is due to us and how much is natural?
Nobody knows. No body, not even an international body of climate scientists.
There are some guesses, mainly in the form of forecasts that say
temperatures will rise dramatically. But those models’ predictions have, so
far, been wrong in the sense that they say we should have been hotter than
we have been.

But bad models that make wrong or unskillful predictions are certainly not a
sufficiently powerful reason to restrain unavoidable bureaucratic zeal
coupled to the belief that any change in anything (including climate) is
some body’s fault.

The second component is the most important part, so pay attention. It is the
belief-and it is only a belief, a faith-that whatever changes in the climate
that occur will be bad changes, or changes that will in some way be harmful
to humans.

This is a belief because there is no direct evidence that shows climate
change will be deleterious. There are scads of statistical studies that says
that if the climate changes and if a laundry list of other conditions hold,
then this or that bad thing will happen.

Understand: a changing climate itself is meaningless. The only interesting
question is how that changing climate affects humans.

There have been hundreds, thousands, of studies that make guesses of how
climate change will influence humans. The conclusions of these studies are
statistical, and must be because by definition they are predictions. We have
to wait and see whether these predictions are accurate. I can tell you that
the level of statistical expertise in these publications has been poor at
best and appalling at worst.

There is strong evidence of the investigator effect in these papers, which
in these cases translates to an odd desire on the part of researchers to be
the first to say how fast we are going to hell in a hand basket. My evidence
for this is that there have been almost no studies that show any good thing
that can happen in a warmer, more CO2 rich climate, and that it is
impossible for there not to be good or helpful effects.

There is a hidden component here. Even if the climate changes significantly
because of humans, and even if those changes might be harmful, then we must
also believe that it will be impossible to avoid or mitigate the harm. We
must believe that humans will not be able to effect a technological or
economical solution to the problems we might face.

Now, if and only if all these things are true-if humans do significantly
influence climate, and only harmful things can happen in a changed climate,
and humans will be too stupid or will have no power to mitigate these
harms-then the EPA has done the right thing.

Else it has done the wrong thing, which it obviously has.

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=531

Warmest Regards

Bonzo

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Lower Murray lakes DISAPPEAR , stateline ABC TV report

This week on Stateline (3rd of June):

 What now for South Australia’s embattled lower lakes, and the people
who live near them?

Plus meet the angels of West Terrace!
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/sa/default.htm
Latest Transcripts

Transcripts from the program are published here on Mondays.

google images ‘ "Lower Murray Lakes"

http://images.google.com.au/images?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:e…

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Re: Gore's Ice Core Graph – debunking the denialist liars

On Jun 23, 10:15 am, Claudius Denk <claudiusd…@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

- — -

> On Jun 19, 8:44 am, "Ouroboros Rex" <i…@casual.com> wrote:

> >http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/04/the-lag-between…

> > "When I give talks about climate change, the question that comes up most
> > frequently is this: "Doesn’t the relationship between CO2 and temperature in
> > the ice core record show that temperature drives CO2, not the other way
> > round?"….

> You AGW whackos are like christians that claim to be able to see the
> virgin mary in a stain on a tree trunk.  I don’t know what it is you
> think you see here but I read the realclimate article from which you
> pulled this quote and the question is never addressed.  There is
> nothing here but an unsuccessful attempt to use semantics to dismiss
> the issue.

> Realclimate is propaganda.   Not science.

> It’s even more amusing to read the responses.

""""On historical timescales, CO2 has definitely led, not lagged,
temperature""""

This is in the first paragraph. I guess this is true, if you say that
the CO2 from the last interglacial period causes the next interglacial
period 100,000 yrs later.

I guesss if you mix and mince words enough you can say that we don’t
need to go to the moon, we’re already there,,,, and peer review
agrees. Who needs science or the truth when one has such able bodied
philosphers and rhetoricians as this willing to paint lipstick on any
pig, (algore and his PROPAGANDA).

""""and the direct radiative effects of CO2 on climate have been known
for more than 100 years."""""

They certainly wish to impose this lie. The use the word ‘known’
merely meaning that the idea existed in theoretical climatology or in
Classical Physics before Planck and Einstein in theoretical constructs
which did not then, and do not now maintain conformity to to the Law
of the Conservation of Energy as the 1st Law of Thermodynamics.

Also the word ‘radiative’, is not a proper word. Radiation is a noun.
Radiate is a verb. Radiative is not a proper adverb. The concept of
greenhouse gases cannot be found in any physics or chemistry book
bettween 1900 and the late 1960′s, Modern science could not establish
any fundamental basis for this theoretical concept.

The statement, """"and the direct radiative effects of CO2 on climate
have been known for more than 100 years."""""
Is false and no attempt is made to clarify the vague use of terms.
Normal calculated propaganda of Algore and his psuedo religion.

"""""Global average temperature is lower during glacial periods for
two primary reasons:
1) there was only about 190 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, and other major
greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) were also lower"""""

Pure bullshit to make this statement. No fundamental corroboration of
this conclusion. So admit then that the CO2 lags the temperature by
1000 yrs. Facts are facts, the CO2 is not a precusor and therefore
cannot be the cause of the temperature increases..

This article cannot refer to any study which shows the correlation of
when CO2 begins to rise and effect upon emperature gradient. Hansen’s
attemnpt in his 2007 paper is mere number juggling in which he simply
implies a direct relationship of CO2 rise to temperature rise in
interglacial periods, without consideration of existing CO2 or any
actual viable thermocdynamic outlay, or even qunatification of ‘other
causes’ for temperature fluctuation.

The triple graph in this article is from Hansen’s paper. Hansen in his
paper has to admit that the CO2 lags the temperature, but then makes
the insane statement that there is ‘an uncertainty in the data of 1000
yrs so therefore he can state definitively that the changes are
sychronous’. Pure insanity, with no direct scientific methodology for
this high priest of algore’s religion.

In admitting that temperature change is intitiated by other causes,
the case that recent statistics of warming shows warming from CO2
fallls apart. It is more probable that any recent warming trend is of
other causes. No cause and effect of CO2 is established.

The article then claims,

""""This is a critical point. We cannot explain the temperature
observations without CO2. But CO2 does not explain all of the change,
and the relationship between temperature and CO2 is therefore by no
means linear. That is, a given amount of CO2 increase as measured in
the ice cores need not necessarily correspond with a certain amount of
temperature increase. Gore shows the strong parallel relationship
between the temperature and CO2 data from the ice cores, and then
illustrates where the CO2 is now (384 ppm), leaving the viewer’s eye
to extrapolate the temperature curve upwards in parallel with the
rising CO2.""""

Someone should refer this to the scientific organizations who have
accepted the recent study which claims a direct proportion of CO2
‘emissions’, never mind atmospheric concentrations, to temperature
increases. If significant parts of the theoretical outlay are this
vague within the theoretical science, the entire theoretical outlay
may be completely invalid, since a critical point such as this cannot
be both way, linear or non-linear, or no theory.

So where does scientifc theory stand at this point. CO2 emissions are
linear, but concentrations in the air are not linear to temperature?

Pretty good theory to claim a burden of proof to pursue the holy war
against the infidels who use all that carbon fuels to get to work, and
back to their families, and heat and cool their homes and the places
where they work. All a sinister plot, according to algore, of those
only interested in profits in selling fuel by which we live modern
lifestyles and enjoy our US standard of living.

Algore cannot be disuaded from his Stalinistic 10 yr plan to strip
Americans of their use of fuel, without heinous surcost designed
without empathy to economically strangle Americans as the only viable
means to curtail their production of CO2, regardless of the products
of any science or theoretical science. In the meantime his own
production of CO2 increases far beyond that of normal Americans.

He recently disclosed that he is making most of his revenue and
considerable profit from a company which deals in stocks of companies
which should do well under the regime of global warming. His abiltiy
to think or speak objectively on the issue of global warming does not
exist, although he is the most prolific producer of propaganda of
recent years.

This is one of the funniest articles. What tales the freaky little
puds of algore’s psuedo religion will go to, to keep their false
theoretcial science alive. There is nothing based or referenced of
direct science. So there is no valid definition of science applied to
these inadequate theoretical lies to support the end conclusion.

In any event, algore does not cut out the facts and allows the false
impression to exist that the CO2 is shown to be causing the
temperature fluctuations. He promotes no disclaimers to his
‘documentary’.

kD

posted by admin in Uncategorized and have Comments (4)